Add Monte Carlo simulator, game metrics and sim CLI (Phase 5)

`dojo sim` plays seeded games over a scenario matrix (variant, players,
Kiai bonus, start position, bot lineup) in parallel, prints a summary per
scenario and optionally writes one CSV row per game. Metrics are replayed
from the event log. Plan updated with the Phase 5 baseline.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/test_metrics.py

@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+from dataclasses import replace
+
+import pytest
+
+from dojo.board import Pos
+from dojo.events import (
+    Event,
+    ExamTaken,
+    FightKind,
+    GameOver,
+    KumiteFought,
+    Moved,
+    Source,
+    TrackChanged,
+    TurnStarted,
+)
+from dojo.metrics import KUMITE_SECONDS, TURN_SECONDS, GameMetrics, measure, summarize
+from dojo.rules import VARIANT_A
+
+CORNERS = (0, 1)
+BOTS = ("balanced", "random")
+HOME_0 = Pos(0, 1)  # quadrant 0
+HOME_1 = Pos(0, 14)  # quadrant 1
+
+
+def fought(attacker: int, defender: int, kind: FightKind, *, exam: bool = False) -> KumiteFought:
+    return KumiteFought(attacker, defender, 0, 0, 4, 3, True, kind, exam, cards=())
+
+
+def run(events: list[Event]) -> GameMetrics:
+    return measure(events, VARIANT_A, CORNERS, BOTS, scenario="test", seed=3)
+
+
+def test_measure_counts_fights_income_and_leads() -> None:
+    metrics = run(
+        [
+            TurnStarted(1, 0, 7),
+            Moved(0, (HOME_0,)),
+            TrackChanged(0, 0, 1, Source.SQUARE),
+            TurnStarted(1, 1, 5),
+            Moved(1, (HOME_0,)),
+            TrackChanged(1, 0, 1, Source.SQUARE),
+            fought(1, 0, FightKind.EQUAL),
+            TrackChanged(1, 1, 4, Source.KUMITE),
+            TrackChanged(0, 1, 0, Source.KUMITE),
+            fought(1, 0, FightKind.UPSET),
+            TurnStarted(2, 0, 6),
+            fought(1, 0, FightKind.EXPECTED),  # Player 1 defends: not part of a chain.
+            TrackChanged(0, 0, 5, Source.CARD),
+            fought(0, 1, FightKind.EQUAL, exam=True),
+            ExamTaken(0, 1, passed=True),
+            GameOver(0, 2),
+        ]
+    )
+
+    assert (metrics.kumite, metrics.upsets, metrics.expected_wins) == (3, 1, 1)
+    assert metrics.max_chain == 2
+    assert (metrics.exam_attempts, metrics.exam_passes) == (1, 1)
+    assert (metrics.income_square, metrics.income_kumite, metrics.income_card) == (2, 2, 5)
+    assert (metrics.square_income_home, metrics.square_income_away) == (1, 1)
+    # Leader: 0 (1-0), tie (1-1) keeps it, 1 (0-4), 0 (5-4).
+    assert metrics.lead_changes == 2
+    assert metrics.final_spread == 1
+    assert (metrics.winner_seat, metrics.winner_bot, metrics.rounds) == (0, "balanced", 2)
+    assert metrics.minutes == pytest.approx(round((3 * TURN_SECONDS + 4 * KUMITE_SECONDS) / 60, 1))
+
+
+def test_measure_tracks_turns_started_on_14() -> None:
+    metrics = run(
+        [
+            TrackChanged(0, 0, 14, Source.CARD),
+            TurnStarted(1, 0, 7),
+            TurnStarted(1, 1, 7),
+            TurnStarted(2, 0, 7),
+            TrackChanged(0, 14, 15, Source.KUMITE),
+            TurnStarted(2, 1, 7),
+            TurnStarted(3, 0, 7),
+            TrackChanged(0, 15, 14, Source.SQUARE),
+            TurnStarted(4, 0, 7),
+            GameOver(None, 4),
+        ]
+    )
+
+    assert metrics.turns_on_14 == 3
+    assert metrics.longest_14_streak == 2
+    assert metrics.winner_seat is None
+
+
+def test_summarize_splits_wins_by_seat_and_bot() -> None:
+    base = run([GameOver(None, 10)])
+    rows = [
+        replace(base, winner_seat=0, winner_bot="balanced"),
+        replace(base, lineup="random,balanced", winner_seat=1, winner_bot="balanced"),
+        replace(base, lineup="random,balanced", winner_seat=0, winner_bot="random"),
+        base,
+    ]
+
+    summary = summarize("test", rows)
+
+    assert summary.finished == 0.75
+    assert summary.win_rate_by_seat == (0.5, 0.25)
+    assert summary.win_rate_by_bot == {"balanced": 0.5, "random": 0.25}
+    assert summary.rounds.median == 10
+
+
+def test_summarize_needs_games() -> None:
+    with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="no games"):
+        summarize("test", [])