Add Kiai-decided metrics; keep Kiai at +2 (6.6, D47)

Report how often a Tecnica is played and how often Kiai decides a
Kumite or an Exam fight. The tie rule moves to RulesConfig.attacker_wins,
shared by the engine and the metric; games are unchanged. RULES.md drops
the Kiai +1 and catch-up variants from the rules under test.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

agents/plans/2026-09-25-dojo-board-and-sim.md

@@ -60,9 +60,10 @@ Deliverables:
 | D41 | Phase 6 order: board and Fatica (6.4 with 6.5) → seat order (6.2) → catch-up (6.9) → style dynamics (6.3) → Kiai (6.6), player counts (6.7), length → consolidation (6.8). Structural fixes before tuning | 6.1 review. |
 | D42 | **Board draft 2 adopted** as `board/quadrant.txt` (`board/board.txt` regenerated; draft 1 is in git history, commit 4998931) | 6.4.0 results. |
 | D43 | **6.2 seat order suspended**: measuring it needs 4,000+ games per scenario for an effect of a few points; D35 (no Kumite in round 1) stays in the rules. Seat rates are still reported by every run and watched in 6.8 | Developer, after the 4,000-game runs were started. |
-| D44 | **6.9 catch-up skipped**: the v0.8 baseline already has 3–4% of player-turns out of contention (worst player 10–13%), so candidate A has little to fix | Developer, after the v0.8 baseline metrics. |
+| D44 | **6.9 catch-up skipped**: the v0.8 baseline already has 3–4% of player-turns out of contention (worst player 10–13%), so candidate A has little to fix; dropped from RULES.md "variants under test" (never implemented) | Developer, after the v0.8 baseline metrics. |
 | D45 | The **`random` lineup is no longer run** in experiments: it never finishes a game and cost ~80% of a run's time. The bot stays in the code and the tests | Developer, 6.10. |
 | D46 | Performance work must leave **every game identical** (same events for the same seed), so every result recorded in this file stays valid | Developer, 6.10. |
+| D47 | **Kiai stays +2**: +2 and +1 are indistinguishable on every target (6.6); +2 decides more fights (5% vs 3% of Kumite in casual play). `kiai_bonus = 1` stays a simulator switch; RULES.md drops the "+1 to be tested" note | Developer, 6.6 results. |
 
 ## Phases
 
@@ -173,7 +174,7 @@ Deliverables:
 - One change at a time. When a change is adopted, re-run the 6.1 baseline so later steps start from the current rules, and log the decision (D-number) here and in `RULES.md`.
 - Results go in this file as a table per step (command line, scenario, key measures).
 
-**Next action:** developer review of the 6.3 results; then 6.6 Kiai, when the developer says to continue. 6.2 is suspended (D43), 6.9 skipped (D44); 6.4.1 (chance square) stays optional. Order of the steps: D41. Everything up to 6.10 and D46 is committed (0ca905e); the 6.3 results are not; commit only when the developer asks.
+**Next action:** 6.7 player counts. 6.2 is suspended (D43), 6.9 skipped (D44); 6.4.1 (chance square) stays optional. Order of the steps: D41. Everything up to 6.6 is committed; commit only when the developer asks.
 
 **Targets** (confirmed by the developer as a starting point, D32):
 
@@ -281,7 +282,20 @@ Deliverables:
   - [x] 6.4.2 Option 1, Fatica on crossing: `RulesConfig.fatica_on_crossing` — each Fatica square entered during a move costs 1 stripe, **1 in total per square whether or not the move stops there** (developer, D33); stopping on it adds nothing more. Engine: apply in `_walk` per square entered (not on teleports / relocations, which never walk). Bot: count Fatica crossed in `_path_score`. Likely needs fewer Fatica squares; test on the current board and on a draft with fewer F. Done as the baseline rule (D36): engine `_step` / `_path_choices`, bot `_path_score`, tests; measured on the current board in the 6.1 re-baseline.
   - [ ] 6.4.3 If 6.4.1 is run: compare it with the v0.8 baseline on draft 2 (Fatica on crossing, D36) and bring the table to the developer for a decision (then `RULES.md` and D-number).
 - [x] 6.5 Home farming: covered by board draft 2 (6.4.0): Allenamento moved from the south training room onto the Dojo ring; own-quadrant share of square income 74% → 62–67%, short of the 60% aim (players cross their own quadrant for most of the game); draft 2 adopted as is (D42). Original step: after 6.4, if the own-quadrant share of square income is still above 60% (baseline: 71%), move Allenamento squares away from the Safe Rooms in a board draft (`dojo sim --quadrant board/drafts/...`) and compare. The board must still pass `dojo board validate`.
-- [ ] 6.6 Kiai +2 vs +1: 1,000 games each on two lineups. Watch the Exam pass rate, upset rate and how often a Tecnica turns a fight.
+- [x] 6.6 Kiai +2 vs +1: 1,000 games each on two lineups. Watch the Exam pass rate, upset rate and how often a Tecnica turns a fight. **Kiai stays +2 (D47).**
+  - [x] 6.6.1 Metric: `GameMetrics.tecnica_kumite`, `kiai_decided`, `exam_fights`, `exam_kiai_decided`; report line "Tecnica". A fight is decided by Kiai when the result flips with the Kiai bonus removed, dice and other cards unchanged. The tie rule moved to `RulesConfig.attacker_wins`, shared by the engine and the metric (fingerprinted games identical).
+  - [x] 6.6.2 Run: `uv run dojo sim --games 1000 --seed 0 --kiai 2 1 --lineup balanced,farmer,aggressive balanced casual`.
+
+    | Lineup | Kiai | Minutes mean / p90 | Exam passed | Upsets | Tecnica played in; Kiai decided (Kumite / Exam) | Halfway leader wins | Rivals within 1 belt |
+    |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+    | mixed | +2 | 72 / 95 | 40% | 31% | 2%; 1% / 1% | 40% | 0.84 |
+    | mixed | +1 | 72 / 95 | 41% | 31% | 2%; 1% / 1% | 41% | 0.85 |
+    | balanced | +2 | 68 / 92 | 42% | 30% | 2%; 1% / 1% | 39% | 0.81 |
+    | balanced | +1 | 69 / 93 | 41% | 30% | 2%; 1% / 1% | 39% | 0.82 |
+    | casual | +2 | 91 / 122 | 43% | 27% | 12%; 5% / 5% | 39% | 1.42 |
+    | casual | +1 | 91 / 121 | 44% | 27% | 10%; 3% / 4% | 39% | 1.38 |
+
+  - Reading: Kiai +2 and +1 are indistinguishable on every target measure (≤ 1 pp, inside the noise). Tecnica are rare: heuristic bots draw a Nebbia card on 2.3% of turns (0.5 Tecnica per game; Nebbia is worth 0.2 to them, below an Allenamento), casual bots on 9.7% (3.3 Tecnica per game). Even for casual play Kiai decides 5% (+2) vs 3% (+1) of Kumite. Scratch script `tecnica.py` (200 games per lineup).
 - [ ] 6.7 Player counts: 3 / 4 / 6 / 8 players, start 0; plus start 3 at 6 and 8 players. Minutes per count; decide whether 6+ players start on Yellow.
 - [x] 6.10 Simulation speed (before 6.3; D46: games unchanged). Profile: ~95% of the time was listing moves (`movement._extend`, `Board.neighbours`, the outcome keys in `Engine._path_choices`).
   - [x] 6.10.1 Guard: `agents/scripts/fingerprint_games.py` hashes every event of 210 games (mixed / casual at 4 players, 6 players, Fatica on stop with Kumite in round 1, random bots, 60-round cap); `write` before an engine change, `check` after. A tool for refactoring and speed work, not a test (rule changes are expected to differ). Timings came from a scratch benchmark.